ENDGAME DEBT SUPERCYCLE PDF

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Mar 8, Press. The Debt Supercycle—when the easily managed, decades-long growth of debt results in a massive sovereign debt and credit crisis—is affecting developed countries around the world, including the United States. For these countries, there are only two options, and neither is good—restructure the debt or reduce it through austerity measures.

Endgame details the Debt Supercycle and the sovereign debt crisis, and shows that, while there are no good choices, the worst choice would be to ignore the deleveraging resulting from the credit crisis.

The book:. Around the world, countries are faced with difficult choices. Endgame provides a framework for making those choices. Over a period of about sixty years, debt levels grew faster than incomes. The increase in debt was not just a US phenomenon. As interest rates fell structurally with the fall in inflation from onwards, people took on more debt because it became more manageable. However, by the burden of debt became too much to bear and the debt supercycle came to an end.

The rapid contraction in debt levels due to default and deleveraging lead to a fall in economic activity as people started saving and cutting spending. Governments immediately stepped in and backed bank debt with explicit guarantees. Governments also started borrowing and spending to transfer money to the private sector, for example via unemployment insurance.

So in a very real sense, private borrowing was replaced with public borrowing. Debt was added onto more debt. Rather than free itself of debt, the system now has more debt. The sovereign debt crisis is the recognition that most of this debt will not be paid back, and governments are making promises to pay debt and other obligations, for example general spending and pensions, that they simply lack the ability to fulfill.

The end of the debt supercycle and the beginning of the sovereign debt crisis present problems and challenges for investors and governments. Governments will need to either 1 inflate, 2 default or 3 devalue, which is similar to inflate. That is the way governments have historically dealt with too much debt.

Some countries will experience deflation and others inflation, depending on what choices governments make. Currently governments have only bad and worse choices. Central banks globally have shown a predisposition to print money to solve problems. We forsee rising inflation in many parts of the world, reductions in real income as people lose purchasing power due to higher food and fuel prices and more macroeconomic volatility. Some countries that do not control their own money supply or are running pegs may experience deflation as they are forced to delever and cannot increase the money supply to counteract the weight of deleveraging.

The UK is making some of the right steps to control spending, but even the UK could be more draconian. In nominal and real terms, government spending in aggregate will not be cut in the UK. Also, Iceland has made positive steps by defaulting on its debt effectively. Default is a good way to cure too much debt. To see our full product offering please contact us to discuss a trial of our research. Free Download! Linkedin Twitter RSS. The book: Reveals why the world economy is in for an extended period of sluggish growth, high unemployment, and volatile markets punctuated by persistent recessions Reviews global markets, trends in population, government policies, and currencies Around the world, countries are faced with difficult choices.

How does the sovereign debt crisis play into this? What is the impact of the end of the debt supercycle? What do you predict for the next ten years? You cite the events in Greece as an example of a country continuing to run massive deficits.

Is there an example of a country making a better choice? Company Story.

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Endgame: The End of the Debt SuperCycle and How It Changes Everything

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Endgame: The End of the Debt Supercycle and How It Changes Everything

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Endgame: The End of the Debt Supercycle

Mar 8, Press. The Debt Supercycle—when the easily managed, decades-long growth of debt results in a massive sovereign debt and credit crisis—is affecting developed countries around the world, including the United States. For these countries, there are only two options, and neither is good—restructure the debt or reduce it through austerity measures. Endgame details the Debt Supercycle and the sovereign debt crisis, and shows that, while there are no good choices, the worst choice would be to ignore the deleveraging resulting from the credit crisis. The book:. Around the world, countries are faced with difficult choices. Endgame provides a framework for making those choices.

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